The US Department of Agriculture is projecting a 7 percent increase in this year's Massachusetts cranberry harvest. The numbers, announced Tuesday in Wareham at the annual meeting of the Cape Cod Cranberry Growers, were welcomed as one indication of a growing industry.

The projections, compiled from surveys of cranberry growers, included a projected 6 percent increase nationally.

A 7 percent increase would be big for Massachusetts. At 1.95 million barrels, the projected harvest would represent the second-largest in state history. 

At the same time, growers pointed out that a big harvest, coupled with last year's large crop, may reduce the price of cranberries and thus the profitability of their crops.

Locally, Linda Burke of Wareham-based A.D. Makepeace Company, the largest cranberry grower in the state, said Makepeace hopes to beat the projected 7 percent increase.

John Decas, chariman of Carver-based Decas Cranberries, said he found the Massachusetts harvest forecast to be accurate -- but pointed out that the numbers released this week do not tell the whole story.

"There are two issues that are very important," he said. "How much inventory is left over from last year? I have heard that we could have as much as 60 to 70 percent unsold." He said the second issue is that the statistics did not include international cranberry production.

Decas said that Canada, where Ocean Spray is building bogs, and Chile could contribute significantly to the harvest. He said marketing figures to be made public next week will incorporate the international predictions.

Association Executive Director Jeff LaFleur said that the biggest factor affecting this year's crop was the extremely variable weather. March flooding coupled with hotter-than-usual temperatures in May and June started the ripening process earlier than usual.  The dry weather in June and July may adversely impact the fruit's size and quality.

Concerns about controlling moisture for the crop were on the minds of attendees at the event, which also celebrated the 100th anniversary of the University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station in East Wareham. The station, a partnership among cranberry growers, the University and the Commonwealth, that has made large strides in technology used to measure moisture on the bogs and irrigation techniques.

The station announced that it would soon fill a position of Water Management Researcher to be funded by the United States Department of Agriculture. The position will undertake research to further improve automated irrigation techniques to conserve water by better correlating irrigation needs with weather, soil and other data.

"We shut off watering based on actual temperature rather than farming 'traditions,' now," said Dawn Gates-Allen, the association's communications manager and a bog-owner herself who, like increasing numbers of growers, digitally monitors the soil moisture on her acreage.

"We live that model of partnering with farmers," said Dr. Carolyn DeMoranville, the station director.