Enrollment in Wareham's public schools has declined by more than 25 percent in the past 10 years, despite a steady increase in the town's overall population.

Presented to the School Committee last week as preparation for putting together a 2017 school budget, the enrollment statistics prompted more questions than answers. Taken together with the flight of Wareham students to neighboring towns' schools under the state's School Choice program, the numbers paint a picture of a school system that is not attracting new students.

In 2005, the student population stood at 3,400, while today it is 2,548, Superintendent Kimberly Shaver-Hood told the committee at its Nov. 18 meeting. Shaver-Hood said the projected decline will “level off” in 2025 at 2,200 students, for a 35 percent decrease over the total 20-year period.

Wareham's overall increase in population stands in stark contrast to the school district’s declining numbers. The town’s population increased by 7.3 percent between 2000 and 2010. According to Realtor.com, which uses more recent Census data, the town's population today is 22,830, an increase of 4.4 percent since 2010.

The Realtor.com statistics also suggest one reason for the contradictory trends: Of the town’s population, most people are aged 50 – 59, for a total of 3,801 people. Those aged 60 and over total 6,366 people. In contrast, residents up to age 19 only total 4,844 people.

Shaver-Hood said at the meeting that the New England School Development Council, which creates the projections for the district, bases the trends on current enrollment, birth rate, and “trends that they see in the area.”

In response to Chairman Geoff Swett’s concern that the latter term was slightly vague, Budget Director MacMillan explained that this was an historic trend. But though the chart’s projected data is fairly sound, MacMillan said, “I wouldn’t bet my house on it.”

Wareham has also seen students leave the area, due to school choice. Since 2012, Wareham has sent out more students than it has received. In the 2015 school year, Wareham sent out 155 students, and received only 25 students.

The School Choice program was enacted in Massachusetts in 1991. It allows parents to send their kids to public schools outside of their home district so long as the kids are accepted into a limited number of slots in “receiving districts.”

Committee Secretary Rhonda Veugen said that the Committee needed to keep in mind that the numbers are only guesses, and that she thinks the number of students has more to do with birth trends.

“We all know that when it comes to student enrollment projection, most of it has to do with the level of services that we are providing in our own community,” Veugen said. “I am hoping that this is more positive than what we are seeing on the screen right now, because of the … increase in programs and services to attract additional students here.”

She added that “school choice skews this all over the place."

"I agree with you – this is one data point, but there are multiple data points in terms of what this is actually going to look like, and the only way we can guarantee this [data] is by waiting a year, or two, or three,” Veugen said.